Is dit de dag die je niet mag missen op de markten?
Dat zou je kunnen denken als je het nieuws van vanmorgen leest.
Oil is moving back toward $90 following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. Brent is down around 13%, unwinding much of the geopolitical risk premium.
Markets are reacting quickly: Nikkei +5% this morning, European equity futures +5.2%, and S&P 500 futures +2.4%. US 10-year yields are down 5bps to 4.24%, and rate cut expectations are rising again. The risk of an energy-driven inflation shock is easing.
But nothing is resolved. Everything depends on whether the ceasefire holds and whether flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize. Markets are breathing, but tensions remain.
If you miss a strong day like today, it may be hard to catch back. At ECP, our portfolios are built for the long term, focusing on solid companies generating strong cash flows, acquired at reasonable valuations. Especially in a volatile environment like today, the portfolios are managed with a firm and steady hand, as a panicked approach only gets in the way of letting compounding do its work.
